← 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle
decks
2
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
5-7-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1231–1307
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1213
Q3 1409
1619
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
